Nigeria faces an alarming public health threat, with a new report projecting that the El Niño climate phenomenon could trigger 31,400 additional heat-related deaths across the country over the next six months.
The findings come from a comprehensive assessment by the Climate Impact Lab, which estimates that the Sahel region of Africa could see up to 66,800 additional fatalities, meaning Nigeria accounts for nearly half of the projected toll.
Global and regional warnings
International meteorological and humanitarian agencies have issued severe cautions regarding the intensity of the current El Niño cycle:
WMO Warnings: World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) Secretary-General Celeste Saulo stated that the phenomenon is expected to peak toward the end of 2026, driving extreme temperatures and erratic rainfall worldwide. While natural, human-induced climate change is significantly amplifying these risks.
Food security and economic impact: United Nations humanitarian chief Tom Fletcher warned that approximately 50 million people face heightened hunger due to worsening food insecurity. Furthermore, the African Development Bank estimates the regional economic toll could reach between $10 billion and $20 billion, shaving 1% to 2% off African GDPs.
Global Toll: Globally, the Climate Impact Lab projects 451,000 additional heat-related deaths during the first nine months of the cycle (June to February), hitting nations in the Global South hardest.
Local impacts and mitigation
Domestic weather conditions are already reflecting the strain. According to the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet), temperatures have soared to extreme levels, reaching 41°C in Nguru, Yobe State, and 34°C in Lagos.
Prolonged extreme heat threatens to spark widespread heat-related illnesses, heavily burden water and power grids, and disrupt farming and outdoor livelihoods. To mitigate the worst of the crisis, experts recommend implementing robust early-warning systems, establishing cooling centres, and providing targeted protection for outdoor workers.
